We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the … intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations … find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7 …

This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs … seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict in Africa. It then points to a number of reasons for the changing … and forecasts trends for intrastate conflict in West, Southern, Horn/East and Central Africa. The authors expect large …

the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of … conflict. We postulate a Tullock contest success function augmented by an externality: each group's strength is increased by … efforts. We then perform an empirical analysis using data on the Second CongoWar, a conflict that involves many groups in a …

Establishing peace and reconstructing Africa's war-damaged economies are urgent challenges. For Africa to recover …

are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level … predictor of future conflict is current conflict incidence in the grid-cell and neighbouring cells. Additionally, the infant … conflict dynamics. Finally, the presented results are based on a relatively simple regression model commonly used in the …

Decades of conflict in Africa have left indelible marks on both the physical and cultural landscape of the African … to mass migration into refugee camps also features as major fallout of conflict in Africa. The historical backgrounds of … peoples. This chapter consequently investigates the eroding effect of conflict on physical cultural heritage like the …

the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of … conflict. We obtain a closed-form characterization of the Nash equilibrium. Using the equilibrium conditions, we perform an … empirical analysis using data on the Second Congo War, a conflict that involves many groups in a complex network of informal …