Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households' inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households use to inform themselves about monetary policy are closely related to their...

Low-volatility investing is typically implemented by sorting stocks based on simple risk measures; for example, the empirical standard deviation of last year's daily returns. In contrast, we understand identifying next-month's ranking of volatilities as a forecasting problem aimed at the ex-post...

Verlagsinformation: Die europäische Stahlindustrie ist seit Anfang der sechziger Jahre einem tiefgreifenden Strukturwandel ausgesetzt. Die EU-Kommission und die Regierungen der Mitgliedstaaten ergriffen seither umfangreiche wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen zur Überwindung der Stahlkrisen....

Introduction -- National Accounts -- Neoclassical Macro Model -- Inflation -- The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank -- Keynesian Theory -- Business Cycle Theories -- International Financial Markets -- Solutions Exercises.

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

We show that the S&P 500’s instantaneous response to surprises in U.S. macroeconomic announcements depends on the level of long-term stock market volatility. When long-term volatility is high, stock returns are more sensitive to news, and there is a pronounced asymmetry in the response to good...

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...