This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

The persistence property of inflation is an important issue for not only economists, but, especially for central banks …, given that the degree of inflation persistence determines the extent to which central banks can control inflation. Further …, not only is the level of inflation persistence that is important in economic analyses, but also the question of whether …

ability to describe the US inflation data. Specifically, the model allows for long memory in the conditional mean formulation … yields a good description of the salient features, including skewness and heteroskedasticity, of the US inflation data …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …

The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence … inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974 - April 2015. To … endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002) and Clemente …

inflation volatility.Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchangerate, output gap volatility, and output … gap will have permanent andtemporary causal effects on inflation volatility. The policymakersshould carefully consider … these results to implement appropriatepolicies to reduce inflation volatility. The finding that the shocks areof temporary …