In this paper, we model and forecast monthly budget balance expenditures. The annual dimension of budget figures is integrated with an approach based on higher frequency data. To this end we develop an econometric model (disaggregated at expenditures category level) based on behavioral equations...

It is believed that privatizations substantially influenced both stock market structure and households’ portfolio decisions throughout the 1990s. However, through which channels did that materialize? Using both Bank of Italy SHIW data and a unique set of surveys made on the occasion of Public...

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the key features...

The aim of this paper is to propose a new method for forecasting Italian inflation. We expand on a standard factor model framework (see Stock and Watson (1998)) along several dimensions. To start with we pay special attention to the modeling of the autoregressive component of the inflation....

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. The model has a quarterly...

The aim of this paper is to review the properties of the newly released MeMo-It econometric model by looking at its supply side. The analysis hinges on the link between potential output, which determines the level of GDP in the medium term, and all the channels of transmission that can affect...