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Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics

Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Hautsch, Nikolaus; Mihoci, Andrija - 2009

We model the dynamics of ask and bid curves in a limit order book market using a dynamic semiparametric factor model … spatial and temporal dependencies of the limit order book. Relating the shape of the curves to variables reflecting the … day. Moreover, it is shown that the model's forecasting power can be used to improve optimal order execution strategies. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303679

The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2010

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303756

Performance forecasts in uncertain environments: Examining the predictive power of the VRIO-framework

Powalla, Christian; Bresser, Rudi K. F. - 2010

Strategy tools are widely used in the practice of strategic management to yield a good solution with an acceptable problem-solving effort. This paper presents results of an experimental research project that assesses the practical effectiveness of a theory-based decision-making tool, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303826

Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education

Neugart, Michael; Tuinstra, Jan - 2001

Enrolment rates to higher education reveal quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303986

Forecasting and responding to qualification needs in Sweden

Lindskog, Magnus - 2003

There are more people exiting than entering their active working life in Sweden every year. In addition, the ongoing restructuring of labour markets implies significant changes in occupational structures and skill requirements. Under such conditions it is perhaps more important and more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303992

Zeitvarianz und Zeitinvarianz - mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus

Herold, Jörg; Polzin, Kerstin - 2011

Accurate forecasts of sales opportunities and market potential for innovation today can be a decisive factor in order …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304810

Zur Qualität von Konjunkturprognosen für Westdeutschland 1976-1994

Döpke, Jörg; Langfeldt, Enno - 1995

Konjunkturprognosen sind besser als ihr Ruf. Die Prognosen des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft wie auch die des Sachverständigenrats zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und die der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute weisen — entgegen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305268

Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective

Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305419

Wahlprognosen: Politische Wahlbörsen versus traditionelle Meinungsforschung

Berlemann, Michael - 1999

Traditionell werden Prognosen über den Ausgang von politischen Wahlen aus Befragungsdaten gewonnen. Seit etwas mehr als einem Jahrzehnt beschäftigen sich auch Ökonomen vermehrt mit der Frage, wie eine gute Wahlprognose gewonnen werden kann. Als Instrument hierzu wurde die politische...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305431

Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market

Berlemann, Michael - 2001

Forecasts of macroeconomic variables as the inflation rate serve as important guidelines for the private as well as the public sector. At least central banks that adopted an inflation targeting regime are in urgent need of high quality inflation forecasts. Accurate inflation forecasts are also...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305435