In this paper, we add to the literature on the assessment of how well RBC simulated data reproduce the dynamic features of historical data. In particular, we evaluate a variety of new Keynesian DSGE models, including the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo (1983), the sticky price...

In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of DSGE sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson (2005a) as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996) are...

One of the dangers of high inflation is that it can cause firms and households to pay close attention to it. This internalization of inflation can lead to an accelerationist regime, making inflation harder to control. We empirically assess the relationship between attention and the level of...

Prior research has documented that attention to inflation shifts when inflation surpasses a 3-4% threshold. In this note we examine how attention to inflation declines in episodes of disinflation. We show that for countries where inflation has returned to "normal" (pre-threshold) levels,...

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as...