We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the...

We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model, based on the Gaussian likelihood conditional on initial values. We give conditions on the parameters such that the process X_{t} is fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b;...

This paper provides a step-by-step guide to estimating discrete choice dynamic programming (DDP) models using the Bayesian Dynamic Programming algorithm developed in Imai, Jain and Ching (2008) (IJC). The IJC method combines the DDP solution algorithm with the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo...

Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available nearly efficient testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose local asymptotic power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio interpretation. We...

A common, though by no means universally-accepted doctrine among practitioners of law and economics is that redistribution is no business of the law. This efficiency-only doctrine is not that redistribution is unworthy as a social objective, but that any given benefit to the poor is attainable...

Humans exhibit much more sharing of food harvested by prime-age hunter-gatherers with dependents relative to such sharing by lower-order primates. We investigate this behavior in a model in which a father provides generously to his dependent child-son in period t in the hope that this gesture...

We explain why central counterparties (CCPs) emerged historically. With standardized contracts, it is optimal to insure counterparty risk by clearing those contracts through a CCP that uses novation and mutualization. As netting is not essential for these services, it does not explain why CCPs...

We consider the properties of three estimation methods for integrated volatility, i.e. realized volatility, the Fourier estimator, and the wavelet estimator, when a typical sample of high-frequency data is observed. We employ several different generating mechanisms for the instantaneous...

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to...