This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...

This paper offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...

The focused information criterion for model selection is constructed to select the model that best estimates a particular quantity of interest, the focus, in terms of mean squared error. We extend this focused selection process to the high-dimensional regression setting with potentially a larger...

This paper is about S-estimation for penalized regression splines. Penalized regression splines are one of the currently most used methods for smoothing noisy data. The estimation method used for fitting such a penalized regression spline model is mostly based on least squares methods, which are...