Are there important cyclical fluctuations in bond market premiums and, if so, with what macroeconomic aggregates do these premiums vary? We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond...

Central Government issues securities in financial markets to meet out its financial requirements for fulfilling its objectives towards overall economic and welfare development of the nation. Both money and capital markets help to float short term as well as long term securities before the public...

Empirical evidence suggests that excess bond returns are forecastable by financial indicators such as forward spreads and yield spreads, a violation of the expectations hypothesis based on constant risk premia. But existing evidence does not tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns...

In this study, we analyze the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroeconomic fundamentals. We identify these innovations based on macroeconomic news, which are defined as differences between the actual releases and market expectations. We find that that macroeconomic...

Various macroeconomic announcements are known to influence asset price volatility. While contemplating the impact of a variety of macro news surprises, we highlight the importance of Treasury auctions – a news event that has ramifications for interest rates across the economy and which are...

We examine empirically the response of bond returns and their volatility to good and bad macroeconomic news during expansions and recessions. We find that macroeconomic announcements are most important when they contain bad news for bond returns in expansions and, to a lesser extent, good news...