We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

When the price of electricity increases by 1%, households' average expected inflation increases by 1.0 to 1.3 basis … especially in the cross section, from newly-available public data on expected inflation by Euro area households across region … prices on expected inflation increases for 8 to 12 months, but they can only account for a small share of the rise in …