Economists studying collective decision problems often consider how a social planner would behave. The standard exercise presumes complete knowledge of the welfare achieved by each feasible policy. However, we often have only partial knowledge of policy impacts. This paper extends my program of...

To provide an empirical basis for the study of expectations, we have undertaken survey research measuring in probabilistic terms the beliefs that Americans hold about equity returns in the year ahead. This paper presents new findings on the expected returns reported in the 2004 Health and...

Censoring of outcomes (selection) is a common consequence of survey nonresponse and attrition in panels, and has received much attention. Joint censoring of regressors and outcomes is also common, but it has remained unexplored. This paper shows that the problem of identification when regressors...

This paper considers anew the simultaneity problem that arises when observations of transactions are used to study the demand behavior of price- taking consumers. Simultaneity is shown to be a problem of censored outcomes. This fact is used to obtain a basic negative finding on identification in...

We study first- and second-order subjective expectations (beliefs) in strategic decision-making. We elicit probabilistically both first- and second-order beliefs and apply the method to a Hide-and-Seek experiment. We study the relationship between choice and beliefs in terms of whether observed...

It is well-known that, under the logit model for binary response, the random sampling and response-based sampling maximum likelihood estimators coincide for all parameters except the intercept. Citing this coincidence, many researchers have assumed the logit model and analyzed data from...