In den Hausse-Phasen der internationalen Aktienbörsen, insbesondere in den Boom-Zeiten der New Economy-Branchen 1997 bis März 2000, haben Veranla-gungen in Immobilien bei den potentiellen Anlegern wenig Interesse hervorge-rufen. Jetzt jedoch, nach dem Platzen der spekulativen Blase, gelten...

Investitionsentscheidungen sind stets unter Unsicherheit zu treffen.1 Der Entscheidungsträgerkann dabei nicht mit hinreichender Genauigkeit den Zusammenhang zwischen den Einflussgrößenund der Zielfunktion seines Entscheidungsproblems formulieren. Hinzu kommt, dassdie Werte der...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

This experimental study, first, compares the individual valuations of two risk reduction mechanisms: self-insurance and self-protection. Second, it investigates these valuations when the loss amount is ambiguous, and compare these values with valuations when loss amounts are known. results...

eHealth for Safety is a European study that addressed research and technology development (RTD) needs that arise from the potential contributions of information and communications technologies (ICT) applications to enhancing both patient safety and health systems’ risk management.The study had...

Technical and market uncertainties are significant challenges forR&D management. Especially, in the case of New Product Development(NPD), investment decisions have to be made under uncertainty due tounknown costs and returns which arise from project complexity and duration.The framework of real...

This article presents the concept of a copula-based top-down approachin the field of financial risk aggregation. Selected copulasand their properties are presented. Copula parameter estimation andgoodness-of-fit tests are explained and algorithms for the simulationof copulas and...

Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions.As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the marketor credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of awrong model can lead to a serious over- or...

Efficient applications of expert systems to project risk management problemsare seldom, if not unusual. In this paper we overcome this lack by using the probabilisticexpert system shell SPIRIT. The rule-based shell’s power in conditioning, inference andreasoning under incomplete information...

The evaluation of risks discharges very often into subjective assessments of the probabilityof occurrence and / or the extent of loss. These assessments show a low transparency concerningthe development of the judgements and are influenced by various different cognitiveeffects hindering the...