This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have...

This paper focuses upon the status and prevalence of expert systems in life insurance in the UK today and reports the results of a widescale survey conducted by the authors. About 90% of the companies who responded are undertaking some form of activity in the field, with 59% expected to have...

The financial services industry and, in particular, the insurance industry has emerged as an important user of expert systems. In the following review we examine evidence of the spread of such systems in insurance, and focus more particularly upon life insurance, where the greatest amount of...

In July 2002 the First International Conference on "Probing the Future: Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy", was organised by Hari Tsoukas and Jill Sheppard, and held at the University of Strathclyde, Graduate School of Business, in Glasgow. This conference resulted in...

This paper presents a case analysis of a successful scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization...

In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development programs. We present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of...