Meeting the predictors -- The problem with forecasting in economic theory -- Inside Swiss banking -- Among financial analysts -- Intrinsic value, market value, and the search for information -- The construction of an investment narrative -- The politics of circulating narratives -- Analysts as...

We use payroll data on 1.2 million bank employee years in the Austrian, German, and Swiss banking sector to identify incentive pay in the critical banking segments of treasury/capital market management and investment banking for 66 banks. We document an economically significant correlation of...