This paper provides a comprehensive framework for comparing predictors of univariate time series in the mean square norm. Initially, the forecast errors are assumed to be unbiased, independent, and normally distributed. Each of these is progressively relaxed. A new heteroscedasticity and...

The contribution of this paper is to derive a bivariate distribution for inflation and output uncertainty with a well-defined role for subjective judgements. The marginal distributions for inflation and output growth are derived from uncertainty in the macro variables that are deemed to be...

There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policy makers deal with in practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast...

Die Publikation basiert auf einer Studie für das Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Innovation, Digitalisierung und Energie des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen (MWIDE NRW), in der die Beschäftigungs- und Wertschöpfungsverluste der vorzeitigen Beendigung der Braun- und Steinkohleverstromung für NRW...