We develop a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be determinate in a class of forward-looking Markov-switching rational expectations models, and we develop an algorithm to check these conditions in practice. We use three examples, based on the new Keynesian model of...

The purpose of this paper is to solve linear dynamic rational expectations models with anticipated shocks by using the generalized Schur decomposition method. We also determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy responses to temporary as well as permanent shocks which both are...

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s...

The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely modelconsistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close...

The purpose of this paper is to show how to solve linear dynamic rational expectations models with anticipated shocks by using the generalized Schur decomposition method. Furthermore, we determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy responses to anticipated shocks. We demonstrate our...

This paper studies the dynamic volatility properties of a monetary economy in which agents hold Rational Beliefs (see Kurz (1994), (1997)) rather than Rational Expectations. Except for this feature the examined Rational Belief Equilibrium (in short, RBE) is entirely standard: markets are...

This paper investigates optimal indexation in the New Keynesian model, when the indexation choice includes the possibility of partial indexation and of varying weights on rational and lagged indexation. It Önds that the Calvo contract adjusted for rationally expected indexation under both...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the...

Under rational expectations, monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper...