This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy has experienced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the second half of 2008, financial pressures intensified and came to a head with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. Executive Directors have...

The stress testing analysis in the United States was based on publicly available information and on models that are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The stress tests illustrate important vulnerabilities in the banking sector. It highlights the importance of macrofinancial...

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time...

This book, by a staff team headed by Yusuke Horiguchi, examines U.S. economic policy and performance in the 1980s, during which the United States enjoyed its longest peacetime expansion. Notwithstanding the buoyant growth and declines in inflation, the economy experienced low savings, current...

This Selected Issues Paper of the United States analyses the Report on Standards and Codes (ROSC) and the Detailed Assessment Report (DAR) on the current state of the U.S. implementation of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. The assessment identifies key weaknesses in...

This paper sheds light on the attractiveness of U.S. assets by studying dollar risk premiums, calculated using Consensus exchange rate forecasts, and linking them to bilateral capital flows. The paper finds that the presence of negative dollar risk premiums (i.e. expectations of a dollar...

This paper reviews the tax policy debate in the United States on the move of the corporation tax from its present worldwide basis to a territorial basis, and considers the implications for the United States and the rest of the world. It finds that there is no clear view on whether the move would...

The report gives a summary of the detailed assessment report on the implementation of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking in the United States and its recommendations, securities and futures market regulatory, insurance regulation, Fixed Income Clearing Corporation -Government...

We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these...

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU...