A recent paper by Baba, Hendry, and Starr presents an error-correction model of the demand for M1 in the United States, which shows a dramatic improvement in both fit and stability over earlier models. This note estimates an alternative model with the same data set and draws two conclusions:...

There is a widespread view that the adjustment of U.S. trade prices--and hence merchandise trade flows--in the face of the substantial dollar depreciation since early 1985 has been slower than might have been expected. This paper examines the recent behavior of U.S. trade prices, and concludes...

This paper examines the recent difficulties experienced in U.S. agriculture, and discusses the role played by government policies, in particular reviewing recent developments in those policies. Studies of the extent and costs of agricultural protection in the United States and other major...

This paper explores how the tax treatment of investment and savings affects international capital flows as well as national and global welfare. Focusing on portfolio investment, it evaluates the international effects of capital income taxes in the United States and Japan. During the 1980s, these...

This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation...

In this paper we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to assess the macroeconomic and welfare consequences in the United States of alternative fiscal policies over the medium-term. We find that failing to address the fiscal imbalances associated with current federal fiscal...

Antidumping and countervailing duty procedures are governed by specific rules requiring both injury (by reason of imports) and dumping/subsidies, and thus might be expected to be less susceptible to pressures for protection arising from cyclical movements in the domestic macroeconomy. This paper...

The concept of market-based fiscal discipline posits that a government which runs persistent, excessive fiscal deficits will face an increased cost of borrowing and eventually, a reduced availability of credit, and that these market actions will provide an incentive to correct irresponsible...

The effect of the tax treatment of IRA/401(k)s on U.S. personal saving is examined using household survey data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. The results suggest that the tax treatment of IRA/401(k)s encouraged households to increase the share of assets held in the form of pension...