Im deutschen Eisenbahnpersonenfernverkehrsmarkt sind die Verkehrs- und Betriebs-leistung seit der Bahnreform fast unverändert geblieben, der Marktanteil neuer Wettbe-werber stagniert bei deutlich unter 1 %, und viele Eintrittsversuche von alternativen An-bietern waren allenfalls kurzfristig...

We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is...

Financial repression allows governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates. Quantifying financial repression is challenging, because it relies on an estimate of the interest rate which would prevail in the absence of repression. In this paper, we put forward a quantitative business...

The unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote in June 2016 provides a rare macroeconomic experiment to study the aggregate consequences of a sudden change in expectations regarding future economic prospects. Using synthetic control methods, we show that forward looking households and businesses...