We analyze non-stationary time series that do not only trend together in the long run, but restore the equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. While this represents a common serial correlation feature, the framework is extended to codependence, allowing for delayed...

"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the effect of a foreign volatility innovation on a conditional...

This paper examines how the shift towards working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes the way how labor market and locality choices interact. For our analysis, we combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential...

This paper develops a large-scale algorithm‑based application to improve the match quality in the labor market. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies in Germany to predict job match quality in terms of job stability and wages. The models are estimated with both...

This paper develops a large-scale algorithm‑based application to improve the match quality in the labor market. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies in Germany to predict job match quality in terms of job stability and wages. The models are estimated with both...

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten in der Zeitarbeitsbranche stieg in Deutschland lange Zeit an. Seit Ende 2017 hat sich dies verändert, die Zahl der Beschäftigten in der Zeitarbeit sinkt. Dies hängt mit der Neufassung des Arbeitnehmerüberlassungsgesetzes zusammen, aber auch mit der schwachen...

Auch wenn die Corona-Krise noch nicht endgültig überwunden ist, befindet sich der Arbeitsmarkt wieder auf Erholungskurs. Der Kurzbericht blickt auf das zu erwartende Arbeitsmarktgeschehen in diesem und im nächsten Jahr. Insgesamt wird für 2021 ein Jahreswachstum des realen BIP von...