In this paper we propose a statistically derived measure as an alternative to the simple average PD to provide more accurate risk assessment at portfolio level. The theoretical analysis is followed by a numerical example in sections 3 and 4. We then assess the accuracy and representativeness...

The aim of this paper is to address the validity of default probability models calibrated on a dataset including a very low (or none) number of defaults. The few approaches, proposed by the specialized literature are based on the confidence intervals computed via probabilistic, Bayesian or...

This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...