Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of gold should be linked to real interest rates and the rate of change of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we use a real-time forecasting approach to analyze whether real interest rates and...

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches for German key macroeconomic variables using a dataset that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating...

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Economic forecasts are quite essential in our daily lives, which is why many research institutions periodically make and publish forecasts of main economic indicators. We ask (1) whether we can consistently have a better prediction when we combine multiple forecasts of the same variable and (2)...

Using factor models, it has recently been shown that a pre-selection of indicators improves GDP forecasts in the very short-term. The aim of this paper is to adopt this research to the methodology of bridge models in combination with pooling approaches. Focusing on Euro Area GDP between 2005 and...

This paper examines and evaluates macroeconomic forecasts for the original ASEAN-5 members in the context of a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model covering 20 countries, grouped into nine countries/regions. After estimating the GVAR model, we generate 12 one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the...

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators outperform...

This study introduces a monthly coincident indicator for consumption in Germany based on Google Trends data on web search activity. In real-time nowcasting experiments the indicator outperforms common survey-based indicators in predicting consumption. Unlike those indicators, it provides...

Attention invited to the most workable cross sectoral interregional models relating to application tools of integrated analysis and forecasting (planning) where scenarios are defined by physical output indicators dependent on material, labor and capital costs together with objective production...

In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit...