The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term development prospects, covering the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe including Turkey, together with Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and China. Separate chapters present an overview of...

"Using an early warning system (EWS) model, this paper provides more empirical evidence on the causes of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with a view to discriminating between the two hypotheses of "weak fundamentals" and "investors' panic." The results show that there are strong warning signals...

Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous...