In this paper we analyse countercyclical fiscal policy within the context of a microfounded analysis of business cycle stabilisation. We show that tax and spending instruments can have a useful counter cyclical role, even after allowing for the distortionary nature of the instruments and the...

We conduct an empirical study on how 22 donors allocate their bilateral aid among 147 recipient countries over the 1970-2004 period to investigate whether recent changes in the international aid architecture at the international and country levelhave led to changes in donor behavior. We find...

Since late 2005, China’s two stock markets, in Shanghai (SSE) and Shenzhen (SZSE), have risen over 600% only to fall by close to 60% from a peak in late 2007. The race up and down is reflected in China’s macroeconomic indicators, but the real story lies with individuals investing in the...

We challenge recent findings by Abiad and Mody (2005) which suggest that financial liberalization has little to do with political variables. This analysis is at odds with some of the established literature, and only with difficulty comes to terms with the considerable cross-national variation in...

Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well...

We examine the properties of simple quantity-based monetary policy rules of the kind widely used in low-income African economies. Using a DSGE model and focusing our attention on responses to positive aid shocks, we suggest that policy rules involving substantial reserve accumulation in the face...

Conditional on choosing a pegged exchange rate regime, what determines the currency to which countries peg or “anchor” their exchange rate? This paper aims to answer this question using a panel multinomial logit framework, covering more than 100 countries for the period 1980-1998. We find...

Presidential democracies were 4.9 times more likely to default on external debts between 1976 and 2000 than parliamentary democracies. This paper argues that the explanation to the pattern of serial defaults among a number of sovereign borrowers lies in their constitutions (on serial defaults...

This paper analyses the effects of inflation shocks, demands shocks, and aid shocks on low-income, quasi-emerging-market economies, and discusses how monetary policy can be used to manage these effects. We make use of a model developed for such economies by Adam et al. (2007). We examine the...

Despite regular and serious systemic volatility, reform of international financial architecture remains limited, retaining market-oriented characteristics and adjustment mechanisms. A failure of the architecture to focus on the political underpinnings of global financial and monetary governance...