The financial and economic crisis has drawn attention to the need for a better understanding of destabilising effects that arise in the financial sector and spill over to the real economy. In turn, weakening economic conditions are likely to feed back to the financial sector, thus giving rise to...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

Applying nonparametric variable selection criteria in nonlinear regression models generally requires a substantial computational effort if the data set is large. In this paper we present a selection technique that is computationally much less demanding and performs well in comparison with...