Statisticians generally consider statistical modeling superior (or at least a useful supplement) to experience-based intuition for estimating the outputs of a complex system. But recent psychological research has led to an enhancement of experience-based intuition known as reference class...

The dogit choice model is a modification of the logit model to allow for 'captive' or 'perfect loyal' buyers. This paper derives the dogit choice model from a two-period loyalty model drawn from the marketing science literature. This will prove that the dogit model can be used even when buyers...