We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that...

Current account crises in emerging markets are characterized by large increases in interest rates, big drops in output, and large real currency depreciations. Current models of crisis with financial frictions do not generate very large movements in these variables. Recent work has shown that the...

This paper analyses empirically the purchasing power parity, the uncovered interest parity and the real interest parity (Fisher parity) between Poland and Germany. The international parity relations are investigated jointly within the cointegrated VAR framework. Our analysis fails to find...

Economic integration in East Asia is proceeding along two tracks. One involves discussions among governments and focuses on formal agreements covering bilateral and regional free trade areas, as well as cooperation at the level of macroeconomic stabilization. The other is informal and driven...

This paper studies the main effects of external commercial and financial shocks on output and real exchange rate in Costa Rica. Commercial shocks are approximated by foreign demand and international prices indicators (GDP of USA and the terms of trade of Costa Rica) and financial shocks by the...

This paper analyzes the ad hoc decision of three Asian countries to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar prior to the Asian crisis. It uses the Sjaastad model to estimate the optimal basket weights for Thailand, Korea, and Singapore. The analysis in this paper differs from the optimal basket...

This paper establishes the ability of a Real Business Cycle model to account for real exchange rate (RXR) behaviour, using UK experience as empirical focus. We show that a productivity burst simulation is capable of explaining the appreciation of RXR and its cyclical pattern observed in the...

This paper establishes the ability of a Real Business Cycle model to account for real exchange rate behaviour, using UK data. We show that a productivity simulation is capable of explaining initial real appreciation with subsequent depreciation to a lower steady state. The model is tested by the...