Showing 191 - 200 of 1,609
This paper considers the problem of modeling migraine severity assessments and their dependence on weather and time characteristics. Since ordinal severity measurements arise from a single patient, dependencies among the measurements have to be accounted for. For this the autoregressive ordinal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275914
The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that systematically reduces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275923
News - anticipated changes of an economy's fundamentals - drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news, this paper focuses on climate-change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540950
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflation within war zones. Interestingly, countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014546012
Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014561421
The paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to include two important stylised facts: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, the paper derives a closed form solution for consumption in the presence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636534
We assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations of actual price setters. Second, we observe the day on which firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263137
The notion that flexible exchange rates insulate a country from foreign shocks is well grounded in theory, from the classics (Meade, 1951; Friedman 1953), to the more recent open economy literature (Obstfeld and Rogo, 2000). We confront it with new evidence from Europe. Specifically, we study how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420382
We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819035
How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar's role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819042