Differences in transmission mechanisms can generate asymmetric behaviour among currency union partners when they experience shocks. This has the potential to widen existing cyclical variation between members of a currency union. Our analysis suggests that the transmission mechanisms of GDP and...

The link between banking integration and financial stability has taken center stage in the wake of the current financial crisis. To what extent is the banking system in Europe integrated? What role has the introduction of the common currency played in this context? Are integrated banking markets...

In the framework of a new money-market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. subprime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...

This paper uses a unique monthly data set that covers overall credit card usage in a small-open economy, Turkey, to investigate a possible credit channel of monetary policy transmission through credit cards. A reduced-form vector autoregression analysis is employed where the forecast error...

We looked at how international food price shocks have impacted local inflation processes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in the past decade. Using impulse-response analysis coming from cointegrated vars, we find that international food inflation shocks take from one to six quarters...

We use time-series analysis to examine bank behavior with respect to credit supply employing both banking data and other financial variables for the Turkish economy over the 1990 – 2009 period. We provide a vector error-correction (VEC) model to test for multivariate cointegration and Granger...

This paper analyses the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate pass-through to prices comparing the results from a Semi-structural Model, VAR models, nonlinear regressions and the Kalman Filter. This paper also discusses the relation between a set of macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange...

This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify shocks to political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not...

Most macroeconomic models view economic outcomes as being generated by a combination of endogenous and exogenous dynamic forces. In particular, the exogenous forces are generally modelled as a set of independent dynamics processes. In this paper we begin by showing that this dual dynamic...

The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not...