A conventional finding of recursive structural VAR (SVAR) analyses is the price puzzle namely the positive relationship between interest rates and inflation. We employ a Markov regime-switching structural VAR (MRS-SVAR) to investigate whether the price puzzle is present at regimes where there is...

This study aims to identify and analyze the effects of Turkish Central Bank's interventions over currency rate volatility. US Dolar and Euro Returns of Turkish Lira between 04.01.1999 and 24.09.2008 are modelled in the study. Econometric methods used are ARFIMA-GARCH and ARFIMA-FIGARCH models....

Vector autoregressions have steadily gained in popularity since their introduction in econometrics 25 years ago. A drawback of the otherwise fairly well developed methodology is the inability to incorporate prior beliefs regarding the system's steady state in a satisfactory way. Such prior...

There are many different approaches to the process of stress testing and two of them will be investigated in this paper. The first one is a stress test performed on aggregated data i.e. the banking system as a whole. The variable of interest in both exercises is the Loan Loss Provision ratio...

Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in stabilising the...

In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. We conduct a cross-country analysis, considering European Monetary Union...

We use Backus and Kehoe (1992) long, low frequency data on real GNP/GDP and money for Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the Uniter States to examine the long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money propositions. In doing so, we apply...

El presente estudio busca comprobar si la autonomía de la Banca Central en Colombia, adquirida a partir de la Carta Política de 1991, logró controlar de manera adecuada los márgenes de inflación a través de la no monetización de los déficits del Gobierno; o si por el contrario, esto no...

Many economic applications call for simultaneous equations VAR modeling. We show that the existing importance sampler can be prohibitively inefficient for this type of models. We develop a Gibbs simulator that works for both simultaneous and recursive VAR models with a much broader range of...