We analyze quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976-2013. Based on common cyclical employment dynamics, we identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of "routine" and "non-routine" jobs. After decomposing the...

Within the context of the firm location choice problem, Guimarães et al. (2003) have shown that a Poisson count regression and a conditional logit model yield identical coeffcient estimates. Yet, the corresponding interpretation differs since these discrete choice models reflect polar cases as...

Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. Data augmentation for the multinomial logit model of the transition probabilities is alternatively based on a random utility and a difference in random utility...

Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that...

The analysis of large panel data sets (with N variables) involves methods of dimension reduction and optimal information extraction. Dimension reduction is usually achieved by extracting the common variation in the data into few factors (k, where k N). In the present project, factors are...

We assess the role of financial linkages for the transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro Crisis. Building on the narrative approach by Romer and Romer (1989), we use financial news to identify structural shocks in a VAR model of daily sovereign CDS for eleven European countries. To estimate...

Does a country’s ability to enforce debt contracts affect the sensitivity of economic activity to collateral values? To answer this question, we introduce a novel industry-specific measure of real asset redeployability - the ease with which real assets are transfered to alternative uses - as a...

We describe three different extensive data sets on the Swiss market for basic health care insurance—a homogeneous product by construction. First, we provide descriptive statistics on market prices for period 2004 - 2010. Second, we present aggregated data on health plan choices made by Swiss...

Decision makers lacking crucial specialist know-how often consult with better informed but biased experts. In our model the decision maker’s choice problem is binary and her preferred option depends on the state of the world unknown to her. The expert observes the state and sends a report to...

No, not really. Responding to lingering concerns about the reliability of SVARs, Christiano et al (NBER Macro Annual, 2006, "CEV") propose to combine OLS estimates of a VAR with a spectral estimate of long-run variance. In principle, this could help alleviate specification problems of SVARs in...