We introduce and analyze a model in which agents observe sequences of signals about the state of the world, some of which are ambiguous and open to interpretation. Instead of using Bayes' rule on the whole sequence, our decision makers use Bayes' rule in an iterative way: first to interpret each...

It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital inflows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

This paper estimates the effect of a measure of political risk on equity investment flows to developing countries. Using a panel data set that includes a larger number of low-income countries than previous studies, it is found that political risk is an important determinant of the sum of foreign...

It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital inflows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

We show that including distribution costs into a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice contributes to explaining the 'home bias' in international equity investment. Our model is able to replicate observed investment positions for a wide range of parameter values, even if...

The analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasi\v{c}ek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models, has made them a popular choice for modelling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to account properly for the dynamics of real data, these models need to exhibit...

Does official aid pave the road for private foreign investment or does it suffocate private initiative by diverting resources towards unproductive activities? We explore this question using panel data covering a large number of developing and emerging economies during the 1990s. Controlling for...