This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external...

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest - the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In...

The yield spread is a well documented leading indicator of GDP growth. Estrella (2005) proposes a model to explain this relationship. Within the model, the leading properties of the yield spread are determined by the monetary policy. Accordingly, changes of the leading properties that have been...

This paper estimates the natural real interest rate that is consistent with stable inflation and output at its potential for the euro area and Luxembourg. The natural interest rate provides a benchmark for assessing the monetary policy stance, as policy is contractionary when real interest rates...

In many economies, the monetary policy instrument is the level of short-term nominal interest rates, but the monetary policy stance might be better characterised by the ex-ante real interest rate that this nominal rate implies, relative to some 'neutral' or 'natural' real rate of interest. In...

The recent surge in consumer prices beginning in 2021 has been attributed by government officials to supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and corporate greed. Between 2008Q4 and 2021Q1 the consumer price index (CPI) increased 32 percent from about 211 to 280....

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

We examine the relationship between interest rates and inflation rates for ten countries during the period 1974- 1995. We find evidence of a unique cointegrating relationship between nominal interest rates of EMS countries, the U.S. and Canada, and the U.S., Germany, and Japan. No similar...

We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area...

This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM...