Davis, Joseph H.; Zalla, Ryan; Rocha, Joana; Hirt, Josh - 2023
We extend and update the canonical methodology of Laubach and Williams (2003) to estimate the neutral rate of interest for the United States. Using quarterly data from 1940 through the present, we show that r-star has risen by approximately 100 bps since the Great Recession, to 1.5% today. We...