We document a rise and fall of the natural interest rate (r*) for several advanced economies, which starts increasing in the 1960's and peaks around the end of the 1980's. We reach this conclusion after showing that the Laubach and Williams (2003) model cannot estimate r* accurately when either...

We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median...

We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model to identify the national, regional, and local factors of the city-level housing price growth in China from 2005 to 2015. During the zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episode in the U.S., local factors account for 78% of variations in the month-on-month city-level...

We analyze changes in monetary and regulatory policy on trading relationships in the U.S. repo market. We estimate that when the Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced its reverse repo (RRP) facility, money market mutual funds (MMFs) eligible to lend to the Fed cut their lending in the triparty repo...

We investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and bond spreads for 65 U.S. corporate entities and 6 major banks over the period April 2011 – February 2018. Standard regression methods reveal that in 40 out of 71 entities, the two series fail to...

We analyze the time-varying nature of the price discovery process in the sovereign debt market over the sample period January 2006 – September 2015. In particular, we test whether the cointegration relationship that should tie bond and CDS spreads together holds over the entire sample. In...

Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmanın amacı, son 10 yıldır değişmekte olan uluslararası finansal yapının temel dinamiklerinin, hisse senedi piyasalarının volatilitesi üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Bu amaçla emtia fiyatları, yatırımcıların risk iştahı, küresel ticaret hacmi...

I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...

Policy rates in advanced economies are at record lows and central banks have resorted to unconventional policy tools, but there are concerns that the low policy rates have not been transmitted to lending rates for households and non-financial firms. In this special feature, we investigate...

This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model. In...