This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to 2011q4. Our empirical findings...

In recent years, factor models have received increasing attention from both econometricians and practitioners in the forecasting of macroeconomic variables. In this context, Bai and Ng (2008) find an improvement in selecting indicators according to the forecast variable prior to factor...

This paper examines the role of chartists and fundamentalists in the foreign exchange market. This question is studied using the Markov-Switching model of Vigfusson that we extend to test for the alternative domination of each group. The tests are applied to the Canadian, Japanese and German-US...

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the European Union. We address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 European countries over the last two decades. Our results confirm the non-linearity of the link between...

This paper shows that a neoclassical model with standard assumptions but endowed with an explicit age structure of the population, converges to its balanced growth path with damped oscillations. It therefore reproduces a trend-reverting process with short run fluctuations that is displayed by...

This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the PPP hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics under the EMS. Given the non-stationarity and the non-linearities characterizing the foreign exchange rate dynamics, this question is studied using a MS-ECM model: it...

This paper shows that a neoclassical model with standard assumptions but endowed with an explicit age structure of the population, converges to its balanced growth path with damped oscillations. It therefore reproduces a trend-reverting process with short run fluctuations that is displayed by...

This paper examines the role of chartists and fundamentalists in the foreign exchange market. This question is studied using the Markov-Switching model of Vigfusson that we extend to test for the alternative domination of each group. The tests are applied to the Canadian, Japanese and German-US...

[eng] This paper discusses new bridge models for short-term forecasting of French quarterly GDP growth. The only data used are from business surveys in French manufacturing, services, and construction. We consider two alternative methods. The first relies on the general-to-specific (GETS)...

Cet article montre qu'un modèle néo-classique, aux hypothèses habituelles mais pourvu d'une structure par âge de la population explicite, converge vers son sentier de croissance équilibré avec des oscillations amorties. Il reproduit ainsi un processus de retour à la moyenne avec...