This paper develops new bridge models to forecast the quarterly GDP growth in France in the short run. We only use data from business survey in the French industry, services and construction. Two alternative methods are considered. The first one relies on the GETS algorithm applied to blocks of...

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Community opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing. A threshold autoregression allowing for a transitory strong recovery phasis is estimated for French, German and European...

Surveys of market participants are now widely used in the exchange-rate literature. However, there is no study of academics’views on exchange-rate dynamics. Our paper aims to fill this gap. We conducted a survey of 80 economists in several French universities in November 2002. Most respondents...

In recent years, factor models have received increasing interest from central banks and international organizations to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting the French GDP growth rate over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a...

In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set...

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the European Union. We address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 European countries over the last two decades. Our results confirm the non-linearity of the link between...

This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Given the non stationarity and the nonlinearities characterizing foreign exchange rate...