Testing the assertion that emerging stock markets are becoming more efficient over time has received increasing attention in the empirical literature in recent years. However, the statistical tests adopted in extant literature are designed to detect linear predictability, and hence disregard the...

This paper proposes two new tests for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series based on the concepts of cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations respectively. The tests are then applied to a set of Sterling-denominated exchange rates. Our analysis indicates that there...

Rational parties and retrospective voters / David A. Siegel -- A spatial theory approach to the study of political spaces / Melvin J. Hinich -- Proximity versus directional models of voting : different concepts but one theory / Susumu Shikano -- Markets and politics : the 2000 Taiwanese...

With the model of the electoral process described in Section 1, and a social welfare function defined by symmetrically weighting and summing individual utility functions, two factors, in addition to the density of preferences and the form of the weighting function, affect the performance of the...

A new early-warning system for international currency crises is developed in this paper. The existing crisis indicators in the literature are essentially static. We examine the relationship between the dynamics of foreign reserves and currency crises. It is shown that rapid reserve depletion is...

This study searches for economic and political events that may explain the episodic nonlinearities detected in the returns series of the Chilean stock market index. This methodology is a reverse form of event study. After applying the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to detect episodes of...

Consider a simple change-point model with a binary regressor. We examine the consistency of the change-point estimator when the regressor is subject to misclassification. It is found that the time of change can always be identified. Further, special cases where the structural parameters can also...