We investigate the presence of significant electricity forward risk premia, using data from three major continental European energy markets - German, Dutch and French. We introduce the risk premium in the framework of a standard electricity spot/forward unobserved factor model, and derive the...

We develop a flexible multifactor stochastic model with Markov regime-switching spikes, for daily spot and forward electricity. The model captures various stylized features of power prices, including mean reversion and seasonal patterns, and short- lived spikes. Parameters are estimated through...

Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand...

Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the...

In this paper we provide a framework that explains how the market risk premium, defined as the difference between forward prices and spot forecasts, depends on the risk preferences of market players. In commodities markets this premium is an important indicator of the behaviour of buyers and...

Is an autoregressive moving average model for the unobserved forward risk premium component always identifiable? Is the signal extraction-based approach always feasible? In this paper, we point out a theoretical framework to shed the light on the statistical problem of model identification. We...

The models from the GARCH family are often estimated by maximum likelihood method, either parametrically or non-parametrically. Since the parametric estimation procedure is based on an a priori distribution, its misspecification can lead to the inconsistency of the estimators. Therefore...

This paper deals with the question how an electricity end-consumer or distribution company should structure its portfolio with energy forward contracts. This paper introduces a one period framework to determine optimal positions in peak and off-peak contracts in order to purchase future...

We conduct an empirical analysis of three recently proposed and widely used models for electricity spot price process. The first model, called the jump-diffusion model, was proposed by Cartea and Figueroa (2005), and is a one-factor mean-reversion jump-diffusion model, adjusted to incorporate...

This paper deals with the question how an electricity end-consumer or distribution company should structure its portfolio with energy forward contracts. This paper introduces a one period framework to determine optimal positions in peak and off-peak contracts in order to purchase future...