A necessary condition for two time series to be nontrivially cointegrated is the equality of their respective integration orders. Thus, it is standard practice to test for order homogeneity prior to testing for cointegration. Tests for the equality of integration orders are particular cases of...

A necessary condition for two time series to be nontrivially cointegrated is the equality of their respective integration orders. Thus, it is standard practice to test for order homogeneity prior to testing for cointegration. Tests for the equality of integration orders are particular cases of...

This paper intends to model time series with the aim of per-form forecast using integer and fractional differencing for agricultural commodities future’s price. Time series models of the ARMA/ARIMA type (integer differencing) will be estimated and compared to ARFIMA type models...

This paper derives second-order expansions for the distributions of the Whittle and profile plug-in maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter in the ARFIMA(0,d,0) with unknown mean and variance. Both estimators are shown to be second-order pivotal. This extends earlier...

Monetary policy is sometimes formulated in terms of a target level of inflation, a fixed time horizon and a constant interest rate that is anticipated to achieve the target at the specified horizon. These requirements lead to constant interest rate (CIR)instrument rules. Using the standard New...

This paper characterizes the optimal inflation buffer consistent with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in a New Keynesian sticky-price model. It is shown that a purely forward-looking version of the model that abstracts from inflation inertia would significantly underestimate the...

The poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of nearrational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not...

It is widely believed that inflation inertia varies with the policy pursued. In a novel experiment, price setters determine inflation rates and react to a central bank's indicator, which is implemented exogenously either as cold turkey or gradual disinflation. In a third treatment, subjects in...

This paper compares the New Keynesian Phillips curve with the hybrid Phillips curve for its ability to reproduce observed in.ation and output dynamics. The analysis is based on impulse responses of a miniature general equilibrium model incorporating price and in.ation inertia as the only...

We show that a so-called expectations-based optimal monetary policy rule has desirable properties in a standard New Keynesian model augmented with a cost channel and inflation rate expectations that are partly backward-looking. In particular, optimal monetary policy under commitment is...