This paper investigates if component GARCH models introduced by Engle and Lee(1999) and Ding and Granger(1996) can capture the long-range dependence observed in measures of time-series volatility. Long-range dependence is assessed through the sample autocorrelations, two popular semiparametric...

This thesis consists of three essays in empirical finance and macroeconomics. The first essay proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve. The model allows for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks...

This thesis develops new hidden Markov models and applies them to financial marketand macroeconomic time series.Chapter 1 proposes a probabilistic model of the return distribution with rich andheterogeneous intra-regime dynamics. It focuses on the characteristics and dynamics of bear market...

This paper develops an efficient approach to model and forecast time-series data with an unknown number of change-points. Using a conjugate prior and conditional on time-invariant parameters, the predictive density and the posterior distribution of the change-points have closed forms. The...

This paper investigates if component GARCH models introduced by Engle and Lee(1999) and Ding and Granger(1996) can capture the long-range dependence observed in measures of time-series volatility. Long-range dependence is assessed through the sample autocorrelations, two popular semiparametric...

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a recent statistical procedure to sample from complex distributions. Distant proposal draws are taken in a equence of steps following the Hamiltonian dynamics of the underlying parameter space, often yielding superior mixing properties of the resulting Markov...

This paper proposes a fully-specified equilibrium approach which provides both financial and utility metrics for comparing alternative beliefs about the conditional distribution of a stock price. In this paper we focus on differences in volatility dynamics which are inputs to investors'...