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Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers

van den Berg, Gerard J.; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; … - 2023

Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377329

Improving educational outcomes: Analyses of intervention and public opinion

Wedel, Katharina - 2024

Katharina Wedel prepared this study while she was working at the Center for the Economics of Education at the ifo Institute. The study was completed in September 2023 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at LMU Munich. It consists of four distinct empirical essays that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014491200

Prediction of white shrimp harvest: The case of a small shrimp farm in Tenguel, Guayaquil-Ecuador

Cevallos-Valdiviezo, Holger; Rodríguez-Cristiansen, Ariana - In: Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y … 30 (2020), pp. 227-257

and compare state-of-the-art statistical learning techniques for the prediction of shrimp harvest (in pounds) for a little … allowed, Linear Regression with best subset variable selection and SVM with linear Kernel gave the lowest prediction error …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494503

Reference class selection in similarity‐based forecasting of corporate sales growth

Theising, Etienne; Wied, Dominik; Ziggel, Daniel - In: Journal of Forecasting 42 (2022) 5, pp. 1069-1085

This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioral bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, that is, peer groups, for each analyzed company separately that share similarities...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504017

Predictors of negotiated prices for new drugs in Germany

Gandjour, Afschin; Schüßler, Sofia; Hammerschmidt, Thomas - In: The European Journal of Health Economics 21 (2020) 7, pp. 1049-1057

Introduction In Germany, all new, innovative medicines are subject to an early benefit assessment by the German Federal Joint Committee with subsequent price negotiation and optional arbitration. The purpose of this study was to identify drivers of negotiated (including arbitrated) prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504347

Exploring qualitative data as predictors for M&A: Empirical analysis of target firms' letters to shareholders

Parungao, Manolito E.; Galido, Adrian; Suazo, Maria Leah; … - In: Cogent Business & Management 9 (2022) 1, pp. 1-33

are also indicative to the prediction of the completion of the offered deals. This study employed a mixed methodology …M&A prediction is a growing interest in the field of business studies. However, prevailing M&A prediction techniques …&A target firms and develop an M&A completion prediction model that is based on categorical patterns found among American and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505794

A comparison of different wind power forecasting models to the Mycielski approach

Croonenbroeck, Carsten; Ambach, Daniel - 2014

Mycielski algorithm to state-of-the-art forecasters. As such, we use the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) and the recently …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010369599

Best Responding to What? A Behavioral Approach to One Shot Play in 2x2 Games

Gallice, Andrea - 2007

We introduce a simple procedure to be used for selecting the strategies most likely to be played by inexperienced agents who interact in one shot 2x2 games. We start with an axiomatic description of a function that may capture players' beliefs. Various proposals connected with the concept of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427481

Can measures of broadband infrastructure improve predictions of economic growth?

Mayer, Walter J.; Madden, Gary; Dang, Xin - 2014

This paper investigates whether predictions of future economic growth can be improved by using standard measures of broadband infrastructure. The investigation is carried out by comparing the predictive accuracy of dynamic panel models of economic growth estimated with and without measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471587

Hidden Markov model for stock selection

Nguyen, Nguyet; Nguyen, Dung - In: Risks 3 (2015) 4, pp. 455-473

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709535