This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the real...

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be...

There is a one-to-one mapping between the conventional time series parameters of a third-order autoregression and the more interpretable parameters of secular half-life, cyclical half-life and cycle period. The latter parameterization is better suited to interpretation of results using both...