The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses are likely to alter the global economy in a way that affects its ability to adjust to future shocks and changes. This paper develops a point of reference for thinking about developments which could be deemed long-term and which could in turn...

The new North American trade deal takes effect on July 1 amid heightened uncertainty about its likely impacts. The effect of the COVID-19 crisis on supply chains, the digital transformation of the economy, and the possibility of the US reimposing aluminum and steel tariffs all cloud the...

In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a...

We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other...

This paper addresses tariff revenue concerns that some countries have been expressing in the context of the current multilateral trade negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. This paper: discusses methodological issues associated with estimating revenue impacts; provides impact estimates...

This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in Denmark of the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final Brexit deal between the EU and the UK,...

We estimate the variety gains of trade in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania following the fall of the iron curtain more than a quarter of a century ago. We apply the methodology of Feenstra (1994); Broda and Weinstein (2006); Ardelean and Lugovskyy (2010) and Soderbery (2015) to domestic and...

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects of the US-China trade war on both countries and some emerging economies. Two scenarios are examined, one where only US protectionist measures are considered, and another in which Chinese retaliation is taken into account, using the GTAP (Global...

This paper provides estimates of the potential effects on exports, imports, production, factor demand and GDP in Ireland of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), focusing on trade and FDI channels. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement...

This study analyses the bilateral trade between Brazil and the European Union (EU) in the period 2002-2012, examining the trade opportunities based on a full integration process. It employs a computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), aiming at...