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This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636284
in this model. This note shows that these additional equilibria are always unstable under learning. This is true for both … eductive learning following Guesnerie [2002] and adaptive learning via leastsquares estimation (cf. Marcet and Sargent [1988 … clear cut, since this equilibrium might be unstable under eductive learning while it is always stable under adaptive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265213
This paper examines E-stability, determinacy, and indeterminacy in a general class of regime-switching models with lagged endogenous variables. Using determinacy conditions from Cho (2016, 2020), our first result extends McCallum (2007) to models with time-varying parameters: the unique...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849141
PricesThis paper studies the properties of adaptive learning as a device to select amongst the rational expectations … and improves upon them by analyzing learning in a model with a well-defined temporary equilibrium map, a coherent … informational setup, and properly specified microfoundations. The main result is that adaptive learning is a robust selection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005750349
private agents' learning process, determines the speed at which the economy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005770763
exist multiple Misspecification Equilibria, a subset of which are stable under least squares learning and dynamic predictor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069600
learning converges quickly to an equi-librium very similar to that with model-consistent expectations. In other words, if … one. The mechanism by which learning affects the model is considered in detail and the implications of relaxing the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294016
exists in this model. This note shows that these additional equilibria are always unstable under learning. This is true for … both eductive learning following Guesnerie [2002] and adaptive learning via least–squares estimation (cf. Marcet and … results are less clear cut, since this equilibrium might be unstable under eductive learning while it is always stable under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005545350
We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification Equilibrium is an equilibrium stochastic process in which agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464110