Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...

This paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression(BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As abenchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables, estimatedshrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain...

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...

Our objective has been to experiment with diverse economic indicators in order to help equip Ukrainian policymakers with a relatively simple tool, which could deliver warning signals about a possibility of upcoming economic problems and thereby assist the Government in designing policy...