The main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987...

In computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling there are two broad approaches to generating regional results: bottoms-up and tops-down. We describe both, providing illustrative examples from our experience in Australia. We then describe USAGE, a 500-order dynamic CGE model of the US that we...

Many studies have found that the economic benefits from investment in urban infrastructure are substantial. In Australia, much of the responsibility for the provision of urban infrastructure rests with regional governments. Throughout the1990's many of these governments embarked on a program of...

This report builds on an earlier paper discussed by Peter Dixon with the Senate Select Committee on December 18, 1998 which describes a single simulation, with the MONASH model, of the effects of the tax package. A revised version of this simulation is presented here as the central case ;...

A key question concerning labour-market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour-market programs....

This paper was written in honour of Peter J. Lloyd on the occasion of his retirement and celebrates his preeminence as a theorist and practitioner of the economics of international trade. Besides a surprising number of leading trade theorists, Australia has added significantly to empirical work...

We use an economy-wide model to analyze the effects of three broad programs to reduce illegal immigrants in U.S. employment: tighter border security; taxes on employers; and vigorous prosecution of employers. After looking at macroeconomic, industry and occupational effects, we decompose the...

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are...

Fifty years ago the Norwegian economist, Leif Johansen, gave us what is now recognised as the first CGE model. While Johansen was first, he is not the father of the whole field. CGE modelling in different styles sprang largely independently from several sources. This paper describes how...

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...