Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a set of upper order statistics. We present an adaptive method to choose the number of order statistics involved in an optimal way, balancing variance and bias components. Recently this has been achieved for the similar but somewhat less...

Real GDP growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China “cooks its booksâ€, that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy,...

Parameters in AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models are locally nonidentified, due to the problem of root cancellation. Parameters can be constructed which represent this identification problem. We argue that ARMA parameters should be analyzed conditional on these identifying parameters....

The question of delay management is whether trains should wait for a delayed feeder train or should depart on time. In classical delay management models passengers always take their originally planned route. In this paper, we propose a model where re-routing of passengers is incorporated. To...

Macro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert’s...

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility...

This paper considers the problem of minimizing a linear function over the intersection of an affine space with a closed convex cone. In the first half of the paper, we give a detailed study of duality properties of this problem and present examples to illustrate these properties. In particular,...

Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international...

This paper presents a unified study of duality properties for the problem of minimizing a linear function over the intersection of an affine space with a convex cone in finite dimension. Existing duality results are carefully surveyed and some new duality properties are established. Examples are...