Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09....

The binary states, i.e., success or failed state assumptions used in conventional reliability are inappropriate for reliability analysis of complex industrial systems due to lack of sufficient probabilistic information. For large complex systems, the uncertainty of each individual parameter...

This paper investigates the impact of financial development on economic growth in Pakistan using the Markov Switching Model over the period 1980-2017. The results based on two-state Markov switching model confirm the Schumpeter's view that finance spurs growth. The result reveals that financial...

The appropriate maintenance strategy is essential for maintaining the thermal power plant highly reliable. The thermal power plant is a complex system that consists of various subsystems connected either in series or parallel configuration. The boiler-furnace (BF) system is one of the most...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of trade openness and the factors based on the gravity model on the bilateral trade flows between Thailand and Japan. The factors consist of GDP, distance, trade openness, and exchange rate. Bilateral trade is composed of two flows: Thailand’s...

This paper provides a discrete-time approach for evaluating financial and actuarial products characterized by path-dependent features in a regime-switching risk model. In each regime, a binomial discretization of the asset value is obtained by modifying the parameters used to generate the...

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth conditional marginal loss distribution...

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...