Has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the Japanese economy? Could the Bank of Japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy? Our tentative answers are probably not to the first question, and probably yes to the second question. We find...

We study the time series properties of the Fama-French factor returns volatility processes. Among the original findings of this paper, we point to structural breaks in the volatility of the factors, and strong coincidence between the timing of the breaks in the volatility of the market portfolio...

What explains the cross section of expected returns for the 25 size/value Fama-French portfolios? It is found that modelling time-varying betas is important to explain the cross-section of expected returns, as well as to comply with the time series restriction on Jensen-alpha. Support for a...

Previous models of monthly CPI inflation time series have focused on possible regime shifts, non-linearities and the feature of long memory. This paper proposes a new time series model, named Adaptive ARFIMA; which appears well suited to describe inflation and potentially other economic time...

The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, it is found that the US are an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and stock prices, but also...

A strategy for estimating, ?filtering and forecasting time-varying factor betas is proposed. The approach is based on the multivariate realized regression principle, an omnibus noise ?filter and an adaptive long memory forecasting model. While the multivariate realized regression approach allows...

This paper introduces a new long memory volatility process, denoted by Adaptive FIGARCH, or A-FIGARCH, which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process. Structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying...

In this paper the contributions of economic and financial integration to international stock markets comovements are investigated by means of a large scale macroeconometric model, set in the factor vector autoregressive framework (FVAR). The findings point to a key role of both economic and...

In the paper a new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods (firrst step) and principal components analysis (second step), which, differently from previous...

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern...